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Latest DeSart model in Nevada: Clinton and Trump in a dead heat


The DeSart model enters the the econometric models component of the PollyVote. It currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 51.0% for Clinton and 49.0% for Trump in Nevada. In comparison, on April 27 Trump was still predicted to achieve 50.1% of the vote.

In Nevada, the election outcome is often close. Therefore, the state is commonly viewed as a purple state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.

Putting the results in context

Individual econometric models should be regarded with caution, as they can include large biases. Rather than trusting the results from single econometric models, forecasting research recommends to consult combined econometric models or, even better, a combined forecast that incorporates different methods and data.

Results in comparison to other econometric models

Looking at an average of Nevada econometric models, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 50.9%. This value is 0.1 percentage points lower than her respective numbers in the DeSart model.

The DeSart model in comparison with PollyVote's prediction

In Comparison, the PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 50.7% of the two-party vote in Nevada, which is 0.3 percentage points below the econometric model results. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton shows that the actual results are 1.6 percentage points lower.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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