Iowa: Trump and Clinton virtually tied in latest DeSart model
The DeSart model enters the the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. The model forecasts that Clinton will receive 50.6% of the two-party vote share in Iowa, whereas Trump will end up with 49.4%. In comparison, on April 26, Clinton was predicted to end up with only 49.4% of the vote.
Historically, Iowa has been a battleground state, in which neither the Republican Party nor the Democratic Party has had overwhelming support to secure its electoral college votes. This is why forecasts here are of particular value.
Putting the results in context
Single econometric models should be treated with caution, since they often include large errors. Instead of relying on results from single econometric models, we recommend to use combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that draws upon forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
Comparison to other econometric models
Looking at an average of Iowa econometric models, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 51.9%. This value is 1.3 percentage points higher than her corresponding numbers in the DeSart model.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The econometric model results for Clinton are thus 1.3 percentage points below the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 51.9% in Iowa. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton indicates that the actual results are 2.0 percentage points lower.