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Indiana: DeSart model shows Trump in the lead


The DeSart model published an updated predictionof the election outcome. The model expects that Clinton will receive 42.1% of the two-party vote share in Indiana, whereas Trump will end up with 57.9%. In comparison, on April 26, Clinton was predicted to win only 40.9% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single econometric models, as they may contain large errors. At least, one should examine how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results in comparison to other econometric models

Trump currently runs at 57.3% of the two-party vote in an average of recent econometric models in Indiana. Relative to his numbers in the DeSart model Trump's econometric model average is 0.6 percentage points worse.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The econometric model results for Trump are thus 2.4 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 55.5% in Indiana. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump shows that the actual results are 10.5 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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