The DeSart model released an updated predictionof the election result. According to the model, Clinton will collect 48.0% of the two-party vote share in Florida, while Trump will end up with 52.1%. In comparison, on April 26 Trump was still predicted to obtain 53.2% of the vote.
Florida is traditionally a purple state, where Republicans and Democrats have often won similar voter support. Therefore, the election outcome here is viewed as crucial in determining who will win the majority of electoral votes.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. Therefore, as a general rule, a good strategy is to not rely too much on the results of a single econometric model. At the very least, one should check how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Comparison to other econometric models
An average of recent econometric models in Florida sees Trump at 50.9% of the two-party vote. In comparison to his numbers in the DeSart model Trump's econometric model average is 1.2 percentage points worse.
The DeSart model in comparison with PollyVote's prediction
In Comparison, the PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 50.9% of the two-party vote in Florida, which is 1.2 percentage points below the econometric model results. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump indicates that the actual results are 4.7 percentage points higher.