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DeSart model: Trump with very clear lead in Wyoming


The DeSart model provided an updated predictionof the election outcome. According to the model, Clinton will obtain 25.4% of the two-party vote share in Wyoming, whereas Trump will end up with 74.6%. In comparison, on April 27 Trump was still predicted to achieve 75.7% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. As a result, one should not be overly confident the results of a single econometric model. Instead of relying on results from single econometric models, one should consult combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Results vs. Other econometric models

Trump can currently count on 72.2% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent econometric models in Wyoming. Compared to his numbers in the DeSart model Trump's econometric model average is 2.4 percentage points worse.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The econometric model results for Trump are thus 3.3 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 71.3% in Wyoming. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump shows that the actual results are 27.2 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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