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DeSart model: Trump with very clear lead in West Virginia


The DeSart model provided an updated forecast of the election outcome. According to this model, Clinton will collect 33.2% of the two-party vote share in West Virginia, while Trump will end up with 66.8%. In comparison, on April 27 Trump was still predicted to win 67.9% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. Hence, don't have too much confidence in the results of an individual econometric model. Rather than trusting the results from single econometric models, forecasting research recommends to look at combined econometric models or, even better, a combined forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Results in comparison to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models in West Virginia has Trump at 59.9% of the two-party vote. This value is 6.9 percentage points lower than his respective numbers in the DeSart model.

The DeSart model compared with PollyVote's forecast

In Comparison, the PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 61.7% of the two-party vote in West Virginia, which is 5.1 percentage points below the econometric model results. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump shows that the actual results are 19.4 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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