DeSart model: Trump with very clear lead in South Dakota
The DeSart model released an updated forecast of the election outcome. The model expects that Clinton will obtain 37.9% of the two-party vote share in South Dakota, while Trump will end up with 62.1%. In comparison, on April 27, Clinton was predicted to win only 36.7% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
Single econometric models often contain large biases, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. Instead of relying on results from single econometric models, the recommended strategy rely on combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that includes different methods and data.
Results in comparison to other econometric models
An average of recent econometric models in South Dakota has Trump at 60.2% of the two-party vote. This value is 1.9 percentage points lower than his respective numbers in the DeSart model.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The econometric model results for Trump are thus 2.5 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 59.6% in South Dakota. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump shows that the actual results are 14.7 percentage points higher.