DeSart model: Trump with very clear lead in Oklahoma

The DeSart model enters the the econometric models component of the PollyVote. The model expects that Clinton will collect 30.0% of the two-party vote share in Oklahoma, whereas Trump will end up with 70.0%. In comparison, on April 27 Trump was still predicted to win 71.2% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

Single econometric models should be treated with caution, because they often contain substantial biases. At least, one should check how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results in comparison to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models in Oklahoma sees Trump at 64.2% of the two-party vote. This value is 5.9 percentage points lower than his respective numbers in the DeSart model.

The DeSart model in comparison with PollyVote's prediction

In Comparison, the PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 65.6% of the two-party vote in Oklahoma, which is 4.4 percentage points below the econometric model results. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump indicates that the actual results are 22.6 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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