DeSart model: Trump with very clear lead in Louisiana

The DeSart model enters the the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. The model forecasts that Clinton will garner 38.4% of the two-party vote share in Louisiana, whereas Trump will win 61.6%. In comparison, on April 26, Clinton was predicted to end up with only 37.2% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single econometric models, as they sometimes incorporate large errors. At the very least, one should check how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results compared to other econometric models

Trump currently achieves 57.8% of the two-party vote in an average of recent econometric models in Louisiana. Compared to his numbers in the DeSart model Trump's econometric model average is 3.8 percentage points worse.

The DeSart model compared with PollyVote's forecast

The econometric model results for Trump are thus 3.7 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 57.9% in Louisiana. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump indicates that the actual results are 14.2 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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