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DeSart model: Trump with very clear lead in Idaho

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The DeSart model is included in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. It currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 30.4% for Clinton and 69.6% for Trump in Idaho. In comparison, on April 26 Trump was still predicted to obtain 70.8% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single econometric models, as they often incorporate large errors. Instead of relying on results from single econometric models, the best practice is to use combined econometric models or, even better, a combined forecast that includes different methods and data.

Results vs. Other econometric models

If we look at an average of Idaho econometric models, Trump's two-party vote share is currently at 69.2%. In comparison to his numbers in the DeSart model Trump's econometric model average is 0.4 percentage points lower.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The econometric model results for Trump are thus 2.0 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 67.6% in Idaho. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump indicates that the actual results are 22.2 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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