DeSart model: Trump with very clear lead in Idaho
The DeSart model is included in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. It currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 30.4% for Clinton and 69.6% for Trump in Idaho. In comparison, on April 26 Trump was still predicted to obtain 70.8% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
In general, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single econometric models, as they often incorporate large errors. Instead of relying on results from single econometric models, the best practice is to use combined econometric models or, even better, a combined forecast that includes different methods and data.
Results vs. Other econometric models
If we look at an average of Idaho econometric models, Trump's two-party vote share is currently at 69.2%. In comparison to his numbers in the DeSart model Trump's econometric model average is 0.4 percentage points lower.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The econometric model results for Trump are thus 2.0 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 67.6% in Idaho. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump indicates that the actual results are 22.2 percentage points higher.