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DeSart model: Trump with very clear lead in Arkansas


The DeSart model provided an updated predictionof the election result. The model's forecast is that Clinton will collect 34.8% of the two-party vote share in Arkansas, whereas Trump will win 65.2%. In comparison, on April 26, Clinton was predicted to achieve only 33.7% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. Therefore, as a general rule, one should not have too much faith in the results of a single econometric model. At the very least, one should examine how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

Looking at an average of Arkansas econometric models, Trump's two-party vote share is currently at 59.3%. In comparison to his numbers in the DeSart model Trump's econometric model average is 5.9 percentage points worse.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The econometric model results for Trump are thus 7.8 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 57.4% in Arkansas. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump shows that the actual results are 17.8 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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