The DeSart model provided an updated predictionof the election result. The model's forecast is that Clinton will collect 34.8% of the two-party vote share in Arkansas, whereas Trump will win 65.2%. In comparison, on April 26, Clinton was predicted to achieve only 33.7% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. Therefore, as a general rule, one should not have too much faith in the results of a single econometric model. At the very least, one should examine how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Comparison to other econometric models
Looking at an average of Arkansas econometric models, Trump's two-party vote share is currently at 59.3%. In comparison to his numbers in the DeSart model Trump's econometric model average is 5.9 percentage points worse.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The econometric model results for Trump are thus 7.8 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 57.4% in Arkansas. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump shows that the actual results are 17.8 percentage points higher.