DeSart model: Trump with very clear lead in Alabama

The DeSart model is part of the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. According to this model, Clinton will collect 35.8% of the two-party vote share in Alabama, while Trump will end up with 64.2%. In comparison, on April 26, Clinton was predicted to end up with only 34.7% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single econometric models, since they sometimes incorporate large errors. Rather than trusting the results from single econometric models, one should use combined econometric models or, even better, a combined forecast that relies on different methods and data.

Comparison to other econometric models

If we look at an average of Alabama econometric models, Trump's current two-party vote share is at 59.7%. This value is 4.5 percentage points lower than his corresponding numbers in the DeSart model.

The DeSart model compared with PollyVote's forecast

In Comparison, the PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 60.3% of the two-party vote in Alabama, which is 3.9 percentage points below the econometric model results. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump shows that the actual results are 16.8 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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