DeSart model: Trump with comfortable lead in North Carolina

The DeSart model provided an updated predictionof the election outcome. The model predicts that Clinton will obtain 46.4% of the two-party vote share in North Carolina, while Trump will end up with 53.6%. In comparison, on April 27 Trump was still predicted to gain 54.7% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single econometric models, as they can incorporate large errors. Rather, one should examine how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results compared to other econometric models

If we look at an average of North Carolina econometric models, Trump's current two-party vote share is at 53.7%. In comparison to his numbers in the DeSart model Trump's econometric model average is 0.1 percentage points better.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

In Comparison, the PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 51.5% of the two-party vote in North Carolina, which is 2.1 percentage points below the econometric model results. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump indicates that the actual results are 6.2 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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