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DeSart model: Trump in Rhode Island trails by a very clear margin


The DeSart model released an updated forecast of the election result. It currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 62.1% for Clinton and 37.9% for Trump in Rhode Island. In comparison, on April 27, Clinton was predicted to end up with only 61.0% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. In general, don't have too much confidence in the results of a single econometric model. Rather, one should examine how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

Looking at an average of Rhode Island econometric models, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 61.8%. In comparison to her numbers in the DeSart model Clinton's econometric model average is 0.4 percentage points lower.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The econometric model results for Clinton are thus 0.8 percentage points below the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 62.9% in Rhode Island. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton shows that the actual results are 9.6 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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