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DeSart model: Trump in Michigan trails by a small margin


The DeSart model released an updated forecast of the election outcome. According to this model, Clinton will garner 52.5% of the two-party vote share in Michigan, while Trump will win 47.5%. In comparison, on April 27, Clinton was predicted to collect only 51.4% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

Single econometric models should be interpreted with caution, since they often contain large errors. Rather, one should examine how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

Looking at an average of Michigan econometric models, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 53.3%. Compared to her numbers in the DeSart model Clinton's econometric model average is 0.8 percentage points better.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The econometric model results for Clinton are thus 1.6 percentage points below the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 54.1% in Michigan. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton shows that the actual results are 0.0 percentage points lower.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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