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DeSart model: Trump in California trails by a clear margin


The DeSart model provided an updated forecast of the election outcome. The model's forecast is that Clinton will achieve 59.9% of the two-party vote share in California, while Trump will end up with 40.1%. In comparison, on April 26, Clinton was predicted to collect only 58.8% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single econometric models, as they may incorporate large errors. Instead of relying on results from single econometric models, the evidence-based approach is to look at combined econometric models or, even better, a combined forecast that incorporates forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Results in comparison to other econometric models

Clinton currently runs at 57.0% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent econometric models in California. This value is 2.9 percentage points lower than her respective numbers in the DeSart model.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The econometric model results for Clinton are thus 0.1 percentage points below the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 60.0% in California. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton shows that the actual results are 7.4 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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