DeSart model shows Clinton in the lead
By The DeSart model is part of the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. It currently predicts a two-party vote share of 91.9% for Clinton and 8.1% for Trump. In comparison, on April 26, Clinton was predicted to collect only 90.8% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. Therefore, as a general rule, one should not have too much faith in the results of a single econometric model. Rather than trusting the results from single econometric models, the best practice is to use combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that relies on different methods and data.
Comparison to other econometric models
An average of recent econometric models sees Clinton at 88.5% of the two-party vote. In comparison to her numbers in the DeSart model Clinton's econometric model average is 3.4 percentage points lower.
The DeSart model compared with PollyVote's prediction
The econometric model results for Clinton are thus 1.9 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 90.0%. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton indicates that the actual results are 39.4 percentage points higher.
