DeSart model in Vermont: Clinton with very clear lead

The DeSart model provided an updated forecast of the election result. The model's forecast is that Clinton will receive 66.5% of the two-party vote share in Vermont, whereas Trump will win 33.5%. In comparison, on April 27, Clinton was predicted to win only 65.4% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. In general, don't put too much trust in the results of an individual econometric model. Instead of trusting the results from single econometric models, the best practice scientific advice is to rely on combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that incorporates forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Comparison to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models in Vermont sees Clinton at 59.8% of the two-party vote. Compared to her numbers in the DeSart model Clinton's econometric model average is 6.7 percentage points worse.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The econometric model results for Clinton are thus 2.6 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 63.9% in Vermont. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton indicates that the actual results are 14.0 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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