DeSart model in Utah: Trump is in the lead
The DeSart model released an updated predictionof the election result. It currently predicts a two-party vote share of 21.8% for Clinton and 78.2% for Trump in Utah. In comparison, on April 27, Clinton was predicted to end up with only 20.7% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
Single econometric models can contain large biases, which is why they should be treated with caution. Rather than relying on results from single econometric models, the best practice is to use combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that incorporates forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
Results vs. Other econometric models
An average of recent econometric models in Utah has Trump at 72.2% of the two-party vote. Relative to his numbers in the DeSart model Trump's econometric model average is 6.0 percentage points worse.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The econometric model results for Trump are thus 15.3 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 62.9% in Utah. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump indicates that the actual results are 30.8 percentage points higher.