The DeSart model published an updated predictionof the election outcome. According to the model, Clinton will garner 37.0% of the two-party vote share in North Dakota, whereas Trump will end up with 63.1%. In comparison, on April 27, Clinton was predicted to win only 35.8% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
Individual econometric models should be interpreted with caution, because they often contain substantial biases. Instead of relying on results from single econometric models, forecasting research recommends to look at combined econometric models or, even better, a combined forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
Comparison to other econometric models
An average of recent econometric models in North Dakota sees Trump at 60.9% of the two-party vote. This value is 2.2 percentage points lower than his corresponding numbers in the DeSart model.
The DeSart model compared with PollyVote's prediction
The econometric model results for Trump are thus 2.7 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 60.4% in North Dakota. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump indicates that the actual results are 15.7 percentage points higher.