DeSart model in New Mexico: Clinton is in the lead

The DeSart model is captured in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. According to this model, Clinton will collect 53.0% of the two-party vote share in New Mexico, while Trump will win 47.0%. In comparison, on April 27, Clinton was predicted to collect only 51.9% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. As a result, don't rely too much on the results of an individual econometric model. Rather, one should check how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results in comparison to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models in New Mexico has Clinton at 52.8% of the two-party vote. This value is 0.2 percentage points lower than her respective numbers in the DeSart model.

The DeSart model compared with PollyVote's prediction

The econometric model results for Clinton are thus 0.4 percentage points below the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 53.4% in New Mexico. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton shows that the actual results are 0.5 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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