DeSart model in Missouri: Trump is in the lead

The DeSart model published an updated forecast of the election result. The model currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 42.5% for Clinton and 57.5% for Trump in Missouri. In comparison, on April 27 Trump was still predicted to gain 58.6% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single econometric models, because they sometimes incorporate large errors. Instead of trusting the results from single econometric models, one should rely on combined econometric models or, even better, a combined forecast that uses different methods and data.

Results in comparison to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models in Missouri has Trump at 55.6% of the two-party vote. This value is 1.9 percentage points lower than his corresponding numbers in the DeSart model.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The econometric model results for Trump are thus 4.3 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 53.2% in Missouri. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump shows that the actual results are 10.1 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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