DeSart model in Maine: Clinton is in the lead

The DeSart model is part of the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. The model currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 55.7% for Clinton and 44.3% for Trump in Maine. In comparison, on April 26 Trump was still predicted to collect 45.4% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

Single econometric models can contain substantial biases, and should be treated with caution. At least, one should examine how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results in comparison to other econometric models

If we look at an average of Maine econometric models, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 54.8%. Compared to her numbers in the DeSart model Clinton's econometric model average is 0.9 percentage points worse.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

In Comparison, the PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 54.1% of the two-party vote in Maine, which is 1.6 percentage points below the econometric model results. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton indicates that the actual results are 3.2 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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