DeSart model in Kentucky: Trump is in the lead

The DeSart model is part of the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. It currently predicts a two-party vote share of 35.5% for Clinton and 64.5% for Trump in Kentucky. In comparison, on April 26, Clinton was predicted to win only 34.3% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. Therefore, as a general rule, one should not be too confident the results of an individual econometric model. At the very least, one should check how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models in Kentucky has Trump at 59.0% of the two-party vote. This value is 5.5 percentage points lower than his corresponding numbers in the DeSart model.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The econometric model results for Trump are thus 4.2 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 60.3% in Kentucky. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump shows that the actual results are 17.1 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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