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DeSart model in Kansas: Trump is in the lead

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The DeSart model is included in the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. The model currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 36.0% for Clinton and 64.0% for Trump in Kansas. In comparison, on April 26, Clinton was predicted to win only 34.8% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. In general, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of an individual econometric model. Instead of trusting the results from single econometric models, the recommended strategy rely on combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that incorporates forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Results in comparison to other econometric models

Trump is currently at 61.1% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent econometric models in Kansas. Relative to his numbers in the DeSart model Trump's econometric model average is 2.9 percentage points worse.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The econometric model results for Trump are thus 8.1 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 55.9% in Kansas. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump indicates that the actual results are 16.6 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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