The DeSart model provided an updated forecast of the election outcome. The model currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 70.1% for Clinton and 29.9% for Trump in Hawaii. In comparison, on April 26, Clinton was predicted to win only 69.0% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
Individual econometric models often contain large biases, and should be treated with caution. Rather, one should check how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Results compared to other econometric models
An average of recent econometric models in Hawaii sees Clinton at 63.8% of the two-party vote. This value is 6.3 percentage points lower than her respective numbers in the DeSart model.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
In Comparison, the PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 67.6% of the two-party vote in Hawaii, which is 2.5 percentage points below the econometric model results. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton indicates that the actual results are 17.6 percentage points higher.