The DeSart model enters the the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. It currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 43.4% for Clinton and 56.6% for Trump in Georgia. In comparison, on April 26, Clinton was predicted to end up with only 42.2% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
Individual econometric models should be interpreted with caution, since they can contain large errors. Rather, one should examine how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Comparison to other econometric models
Trump currently runs at 54.9% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent econometric models in Georgia. This value is 1.7 percentage points lower than his corresponding numbers in the DeSart model.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
In Comparison, the PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 53.6% of the two-party vote in Georgia, which is 3.0 percentage points below the econometric model results. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump shows that the actual results are 9.2 percentage points higher.