DeSart model in Delaware: Clinton with clear lead

The DeSart model released an updated forecast of the election outcome. The model currently predicts a two-party vote share of 57.3% for Clinton and 42.7% for Trump in Delaware. In comparison, on April 26, Clinton was predicted to end up with only 56.2% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

Single econometric models may include large biases, and should be treated with caution. Instead of relying on results from single econometric models, forecasting research recommends to look at combined econometric models or, even better, a combined forecast that uses forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Results in comparison to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models in Delaware has Clinton at 55.4% of the two-party vote. This value is 1.9 percentage points lower than her corresponding numbers in the DeSart model.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The econometric model results for Clinton are thus 0.2 percentage points below the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 57.5% in Delaware. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton indicates that the actual results are 4.8 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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