DeSart model: Clinton with very clear lead in New York
The DeSart model is part of the econometric models component of the PollyVote. The model's forecast is that Clinton will obtain 62.4% of the two-party vote share in New York, whereas Trump will win 37.6%. In comparison, on April 27, Clinton was predicted to win only 61.3% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
Single econometric models may incorporate large errors, and should be interpreted with caution. At the very least, one should examine how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Comparison to other econometric models
An average of recent econometric models in New York sees Clinton at 60.3% of the two-party vote. Relative to her numbers in the DeSart model Clinton's econometric model average is 2.1 percentage points worse.
The DeSart model compared with PollyVote's prediction
The econometric model results for Clinton are thus 1.4 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 61.0% in New York. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton indicates that the actual results are 9.9 percentage points higher.