The DeSart model released an updated forecast of the election result. The model expects that Clinton will achieve 62.6% of the two-party vote share in Massachusetts, while Trump will end up with 37.4%. In comparison, on April 27 Trump was still predicted to obtain 38.5% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
Individual econometric models should be treated with caution, since they often include large errors. At the very least, one should examine how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Comparison to other econometric models
Clinton can currently count on 61.5% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent econometric models in Massachusetts. This value is 1.1 percentage points lower than her respective numbers in the DeSart model.
The DeSart model in comparison with PollyVote's forecast
The econometric model results for Clinton are thus 0.7 percentage points below the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 63.3% in Massachusetts. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton indicates that the actual results are 10.1 percentage points higher.