DeSart model: Clinton with comfortable lead in Illinois
The DeSart model released an updated predictionof the election result. The model's forecast is that Clinton will obtain 53.6% of the two-party vote share in Illinois, while Trump will win 46.4%. In comparison, on April 26, Clinton was predicted to collect only 52.5% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. In general, one should not have too much confidence in the results of a single econometric model. At least, one should check how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Results compared to other econometric models
An average of recent econometric models in Illinois has Clinton at 53.7% of the two-party vote. This value is 0.1 percentage points higher than her respective numbers in the DeSart model.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
In Comparison, the PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 58.1% of the two-party vote in Illinois, which is 4.5 percentage points above the econometric model results. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton indicates that the actual results are 1.1 percentage points higher.