DeSart model: Clinton with clear lead in Washington

The DeSart model published an updated forecast of the election result. The model currently predicts a two-party vote share of 55.4% for Clinton and 44.6% for Trump in Washington. In comparison, on April 27 Trump was still predicted to win 45.7% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

Single econometric models should be regarded with caution, as they can incorporate substantial errors. At least, one should examine how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results in comparison to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models in Washington has Clinton at 54.6% of the two-party vote. Relative to her numbers in the DeSart model Clinton's econometric model average is 0.8 percentage points lower.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

In Comparison, the PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 55.3% of the two-party vote in Washington, which is 0.1 percentage points below the econometric model results. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton shows that the actual results are 2.9 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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