DeSart model: Clinton in South Carolina trails by a clear margin

The DeSart model published an updated forecast of the election result. The model currently predicts a two-party vote share of 42.0% for Clinton and 58.0% for Trump in South Carolina. In comparison, on April 27, Clinton was predicted to gain only 40.8% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

Single econometric models should be treated with caution, because they may contain large biases. Instead of trusting the results from single econometric models, we recommend to rely on combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that uses forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Comparison to other econometric models

Looking at an average of South Carolina econometric models, Trump's current two-party vote share is at 56.2%. Compared to his numbers in the DeSart model Trump's econometric model average is 1.8 percentage points lower.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

In Comparison, the PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 55.6% of the two-party vote in South Carolina, which is 2.4 percentage points below the econometric model results. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump indicates that the actual results are 10.6 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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