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DeSart model: Clinton in Montana trails by a clear margin


The DeSart model is included in the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. It currently predicts a two-party vote share of 40.2% for Clinton and 59.8% for Trump in Montana. In comparison, on April 27, Clinton was predicted to gain only 39.0% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

Individual econometric models should be treated with caution, as they often incorporate large biases. Instead of trusting the results from single econometric models, the recommended strategy rely on combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that uses different methods and data.

Results compared to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models in Montana has Trump at 58.8% of the two-party vote. Compared to his numbers in the DeSart model Trump's econometric model average is 1.0 percentage point lower.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

In Comparison, the PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 57.9% of the two-party vote in Montana, which is 1.9 percentage points below the econometric model results. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump shows that the actual results are 12.4 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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