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DeSart model: Clinton in Mississippi trails by a clear margin


The DeSart model enters the the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. According to the model, Clinton will garner 41.4% of the two-party vote share in Mississippi, while Trump will win 58.6%. In comparison, on April 27 Trump was still predicted to garner 59.7% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. In general, don't be overly confident the results of a single econometric model. Instead of trusting the results from single econometric models, one should use combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that draws upon forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Results in comparison to other econometric models

Looking at an average of Mississippi econometric models, Trump's current two-party vote share is at 56.7%. In comparison to his numbers in the DeSart model Trump's econometric model average is 1.9 percentage points worse.

The DeSart model compared with PollyVote's prediction

The econometric model results for Trump are thus 4.5 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 54.1% in Mississippi. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump indicates that the actual results are 11.2 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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