The DeSart model released an updated forecast of the election outcome. The model's forecast is that Clinton will collect 42.7% of the two-party vote share in Arizona, while Trump will win 57.3%. In comparison, on April 26 Trump was still predicted to achieve 58.5% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
Individual econometric models should be regarded with caution, since they may include large errors. Instead of relying on results from single econometric models, research in forecasting recommends to consult combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that incorporates forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
Results in comparison to other econometric models
Trump can currently count on 57.7% of the two-party vote in an average of recent econometric models in Arizona. This value is 0.4 percentage points higher than his corresponding numbers in the DeSart model.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
In Comparison, the PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 54.3% of the two-party vote in Arizona, which is 3.0 percentage points below the econometric model results. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump shows that the actual results are 9.8 percentage points higher.