Connecticut: DeSart model shows Clinton in the lead

The DeSart model is captured in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. According to the model, Clinton will collect 56.6% of the two-party vote share in Connecticut, whereas Trump will win 43.4%. In comparison, on April 26, Clinton was predicted to end up with only 55.5% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single econometric models, as they can contain large errors. At the very least, one should check how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

Clinton is currently at 55.1% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent econometric models in Connecticut. In comparison to her numbers in the DeSart model Clinton's econometric model average is 1.5 percentage points worse.

The DeSart model in comparison with PollyVote's prediction

In Comparison, the PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 54.5% of the two-party vote in Connecticut, which is 2.1 percentage points below the econometric model results. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton shows that the actual results are 4.1 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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