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Colorado: Tossup between Trump and Clinton in new DeSart model


The DeSart model released an updated predictionof the election result. The model predicts that Clinton will collect 50.4% of the two-party vote share in Colorado, whereas Trump will end up with 49.7%. In comparison, on April 26 Trump was still predicted to garner 50.8% of the vote.

Historically, Colorado has been a purple state, in which neither the GOP nor the Democrats have had overwhelming support to secure its electoral college votes. This is why predictions here are of particular interest.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single econometric models, because they may contain large errors. Rather than relying on results from single econometric models, research in forecasting recommends to look at combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that relies on different methods and data.

Comparison to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models in Colorado has Clinton at 50.6% of the two-party vote. Relative to her numbers in the DeSart model Clinton's econometric model average is 0.2 percentage points better.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The econometric model results for Clinton are thus 2.4 percentage points below the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 52.8% in Colorado. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton indicates that the actual results are 2.2 percentage points lower.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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