The DeSart model released an updated predictionof the election result. The model expects that Clinton will obtain 39.9% of the two-party vote share in Alaska, while Trump will end up with 60.1%. In comparison, on April 26 Trump was still predicted to obtain 61.3% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. Therefore, as a general rule, don't focus too much on the results of an individual econometric model. At least, one should check how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Comparison to other econometric models
An average of recent econometric models in Alaska has Trump at 64.9% of the two-party vote. This value is 4.8 percentage points higher than his corresponding numbers in the DeSart model.
The DeSart model compared with PollyVote's forecast
The econometric model results for Trump are thus 0.9 percentage points below the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 61.0% in Alaska. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump shows that the actual results are 12.7 percentage points higher.