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Alaska: DeSart model shows Trump in the lead


The DeSart model released an updated predictionof the election result. The model expects that Clinton will obtain 39.9% of the two-party vote share in Alaska, while Trump will end up with 60.1%. In comparison, on April 26 Trump was still predicted to obtain 61.3% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. Therefore, as a general rule, don't focus too much on the results of an individual econometric model. At least, one should check how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models in Alaska has Trump at 64.9% of the two-party vote. This value is 4.8 percentage points higher than his corresponding numbers in the DeSart model.

The DeSart model compared with PollyVote's forecast

The econometric model results for Trump are thus 0.9 percentage points below the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 61.0% in Alaska. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump shows that the actual results are 12.7 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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