Raba Research published the results of a new national poll on July 12. In this poll, respondents were asked for whom they would vote if Hillary Clinton were the Democratic Party's candidate and Donald Trump were the Republican Party's candidate.
Raba Research poll results
Of those who answered the question, 41.0% said that they plan to vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, while 29.0% declared that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.
The Internet poll was carried out from July 7 to July 9 with 1345 participants. The error margin is +/-2.0 percentage points. This means that the poll results for the two candidates differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Single polls may include large errors, which is why they should be treated with caution. At the very least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following comparison, we convert Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure results in figures of 58.6% for Clinton and 41.4% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls has Clinton at 52.7% of the two-party vote. This value is 5.9 percentage points lower than her respective numbers in the Raba Research poll. This difference is outside the poll's sampling error, which means that the poll is an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The most recent PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 52.7% of the two-party vote. This means that the PollyVote is 5.9 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus outside the poll's sampling error.