Pew published the results of a new national poll on July 12. In this poll, which was conducted on behalf of Democracy Corps, interviewees were asked for whom they would vote if Hillary Clinton were the Democratic Party's candidate and Donald Trump were the Republican Party's candidate.
Pew poll results
According to the results, 45.0% of participants indicated that they plan to vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 36.0% plan to vote for real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted via phone from June 15 to June 26.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls should be treated with caution, because they may contain large errors. Instead of trusting the results from single polls, you should look at combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that draws upon forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
In order to make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, one can convert them into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 55.6% for Clinton and 44.4% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
Looking at an average of polls, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 52.7%. This value is 2.9 percentage points lower than her respective numbers in the Pew poll.
The poll compared with PollyVote's prediction
The current PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 52.7% of the two-party vote. That is, Polly's combined forecast is 2.9 points below her polling numbers.