On July 12, NBC released the results of a new national poll commissioned by NBC News, in which respondents were asked for whom they would vote if the nominees were Hillary Clinton for the Democratic Party and Donald Trump for the Republican Party.
NBC poll results
Of those who answered the question, 47.0% said that they would vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 44.0% declared that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted via Internet from July 4 to July 10, among a random sample of 3 participants.
Putting the results in context
Single polls often include large errors, and should be interpreted with caution. Rather, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
In order to make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, one can translate them into shares of the two-party vote. The corresponding figures are 51.7% for Clinton and 48.4% for Trump. On March 11 Clinton obtained 57.3% in the NBC poll and Trump obtained only 42.7%.
Comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls sees Clinton at 52.7% of the two-party vote. In comparison to her numbers in the NBC poll Clinton's poll average is 1.0 percentage point higher.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The latest PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 52.7% of the two-party vote. That is, Polly's forecast is 1.0 point above her polling numbers.