Results of a new poll carried out by JMC AnalyticsJMC Analytics were distributed on July 12. The poll asked interviewees from Florida for whom they would vote if the Democratic Party nominated Hillary Clinton and the Republican Party nominated Donald Trump.
Historically, Florida has been a swing state, in which neither the Democrats nor the Republicans have had overwhelming support to secure that state's electoral college votes. This is the reason why forecasts here are of particular interest.
JMC AnalyticsJMC Analytics poll results
Of those who responded, 42.0% said that they intend to vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 47.0% said that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from July 9 to July 10, among a random sample of 700 likely voters. Considering the poll's margin of error of +/-3.7 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Single polls can incorporate substantial biases, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. At the very least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
To make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, you can translate them into two-party vote shares. This procedure results in values of 47.2% for Clinton and 52.8% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls in Florida sees Trump at 48.9% of the two-party vote. Compared to his numbers in the JMC AnalyticsJMC Analytics poll Trump's poll average is 3.9 percentage points worse. This margin is outside the poll's error margin, which suggests that the poll is an outlier.
The poll in comparison with PollyVote's forecast
The current PollyVote forecasts Trump to gain 45.2% of the two-party vote in Florida. Hence, Polly's combined forecast is 7.6 points below his polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error shows that this deviation is significant.