On July 12, GQR (D-Democracy Corps) released the results of a new national poll conducted on behalf of Democracy Corps, in which respondents were asked for whom they would vote if the nominees were Hillary Clinton for the Democratic Party and Donald Trump for the Republican Party.
GQR (D-Democracy Corps) poll results
The results show that 48.0% of respondents are going to to cast a ballot for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, while 37.0% plan to vote for businessman Donald Trump.
The phone poll was carried out from June 23 to June 28.
Putting the results in context
In general, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single polls, as they may incorporate large errors. Rather, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following comparison, we translate Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. The corresponding figures are 56.5% for Clinton and 43.5% for Trump.
Results compared to other polls
Clinton is currently at 52.7% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent polls. In comparison to her numbers in the GQR (D-Democracy Corps) poll Clinton's poll average is 3.8 percentage points worse.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 52.7% of the two-party vote. This means that Polly's combined forecast is 3.8 points below her polling numbers.