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Virtual tie between Clinton and Trump in latest Big-issue index model


The Big-issue model provided an updated forecast of the election outcome. The model currently predicts a two-party vote share of 50.7% for Clinton and 49.3% for Trump. In comparison, on June 28, Clinton was predicted to gain only 50.2% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, quantitative index models are subject to bias. In general, you should not focus too much on the results of an individual quantitative index model. At the very least, one should examine how a quantitative index model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other quantitative index models

An average of recent quantitative index models sees Clinton at 53.7% of the two-party vote. Relative to her numbers in the Big-issue index model Clinton's quantitative index model average is 3.0 percentage points better.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

In Comparison, the PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 52.7% of the two-party vote, which is 2.0 percentage points above the quantitative index model results.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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