The Big-issue model provided an updated forecast of the election outcome. The model currently predicts a two-party vote share of 50.7% for Clinton and 49.3% for Trump. In comparison, on June 28, Clinton was predicted to gain only 50.2% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, quantitative index models are subject to bias. In general, you should not focus too much on the results of an individual quantitative index model. At the very least, one should examine how a quantitative index model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Comparison to other quantitative index models
An average of recent quantitative index models sees Clinton at 53.7% of the two-party vote. Relative to her numbers in the Big-issue index model Clinton's quantitative index model average is 3.0 percentage points better.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
In Comparison, the PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 52.7% of the two-party vote, which is 2.0 percentage points above the quantitative index model results.