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Issues and Leaders model shows Clinton in the lead


The Issues and Leaders model is captured in the quantitative index models component of the combined PollyVote. The model currently predicts a two-party vote share of 52.1% for Clinton and 47.9% for Trump. In comparison, on July 5 Trump was still predicted to win 48.0% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

Single quantitative index models should be interpreted with caution, since they may incorporate large biases. Instead of trusting the results from single quantitative index models, the best practice scientific advice is to rely on combined quantitative index models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which relies on different data.

Comparison to other quantitative index models

Clinton currently runs at 53.7% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent quantitative index models. Compared to her numbers in the Issues and Leaders index model Clinton's quantitative index model average is 1.6 percentage points better.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The quantitative index model results for Clinton are thus 0.6 percentage points below the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 52.7%.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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