Issue-index model: Clinton is in the lead

The Issue-index model provided an updated predictionof the election outcome. The model currently predicts a two-party vote share of 55.3% for Clinton and 44.7% for Trump. In comparison, on July 5, Clinton was predicted to win only 55.0% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single quantitative index models, since they may incorporate large errors. At the very least, one should check how a quantitative index model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results in comparison to other quantitative index models

Clinton currently achieves 53.7% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent quantitative index models. This value is 1.6 percentage points lower than her respective numbers in the Issue-index index model.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The quantitative index model results for Clinton are thus 2.6 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 52.7%.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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