Economist published the results of a new national poll on July 6. In this poll, respondents were asked for whom they would vote if Hillary Clinton were the Democratic Party's candidate and Donald Trump were the Republican Party's candidate.
Economist poll results
The results show that 47.0% of respondents indicated that they would vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 42.0% plan to vote for real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from July 2 to July 4 with 1004 participants. There is a sampling error of +/-4.0 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Single polls should be regarded with caution, since they often incorporate large errors. Rather, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, we translate them into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure results in figures of 52.8% for Clinton and 47.2% for Trump. For comparison: Only 52.5% was obtained by Clinton in the Economist poll on July 2, for Trump this result was 47.5%.
Comparison to other polls
Clinton currently achieves 52.6% of the two-party vote in an average of recent polls. Compared to her numbers in the Economist poll Clinton's poll average is 0.2 percentage points worse. This margin is within the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The latest PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 52.5% of the two-party vote. Hence, the combined PollyVote is 0.3 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus in line with the poll's margin of error.