Quinnipiac published the results of a new national poll on June 29. In this poll, respondents were asked for whom they would vote if Hillary Clinton were the Democratic Party's candidate and Donald Trump were the Republican Party's candidate.
The results show that 42.0% of respondents intend to cast a ballot for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 40.0% intend to cast a ballot for billionaire Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from June 21 to June 27, among a random sample of 1610 participants. Considering the poll's margin of error of +/-2.4 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Single polls may contain large biases, and should be interpreted with caution. Rather, one should check whether a poll's results match other benchmark forecasts.
For the following analysis, we convert Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 51.2% for Clinton and 48.8% for Trump. In the most recent Quinnipiac poll on June 1 Clinton obtained 52.3%, while Trump obtained only 47.7%.
Results in comparison to other polls
The latest polling average has Clinton at 53.3% of the two-party vote. In comparison to her numbers in the Quinnipiac poll Clinton's polling average is 2.1 percentage points higher. This deviation is within the poll's error margin, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The current PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 52.0% of the two-party vote. Hence, the combined PollyVote is 0.8 points above her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error reveals that this difference is insignificant.