Results of a new poll carried out by PPP (D)PPP (D) were circulated. The poll asked participants from Arizona for whom they would vote if the Democratic Party nominated Hillary Clinton and the Republican Party nominated Donald Trump.
According to the results, 40.0% of respondents would give their vote to former First Lady Hillary Clinton, while 44.0% would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from June 22 to June 23. A total of 691 registered voters responded. Taking into account the poll's sampling error of +/-3.7 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls may incorporate substantial errors, which is why they should be treated with caution. At least, one should check whether a poll's results are in line with benchmark forecasts.
For the following comparison, we convert the candidates' raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 47.6% for Clinton and 52.4% for Trump.
Results in comparison to other polls
Trump can currently count on 49.7% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent polls in Arizona. This value is 2.7 percentage points lower than his respective numbers in the PPP (D)PPP (D) poll. This difference is within the poll's error margin, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll compared with PollyVote's prediction
The current PollyVote forecasts Trump to gain 56.3% of the two-party vote in Arizona. This means that Polly's prediction is 3.9 points above his polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error indicates that this difference is significant.